Friday, 27 July 2018

Day 25 Scoreboard

The 2018 World Cup Tipster comes to an end.
Ozren claims 1st place with a total of 300 points.
Joris squeezes into 2nd place, with 266 points. Franz and Craig tie in 3rd place with 263. Without the 3 points which Joris gained from tipping the closest Time in the final match, he would have finished level with Craig and Franz.
Ben and Paul are tied in 5th on 261 points, Robert is 7th with 258. 2016 winner Ines ends in 8th place with 253 points.

Congratulations to Ozren for winning the 2018 Tipster.

After 64 matches, that concludes the 2018 Tipster - I hope you've enjoyed it. Thank you for all the humorous comments, constructive criticisms, jokes and quotes.
If I run a Tipster for Euro 2020, I shall be in touch.....
Rank Name Points   Rank Name Points   Rank Name Points
1 Ozren 300 8 Ines 253 15 Mark 222
2 Joris 266 9 Tino 252 16 Soeren 221
3 Franz 263 10 André 244 17 Lee 219
4 Craig 263 11 Joe 241 18 Axel 212
5 Ben 261 12 Christian 234 19 Ralph 176
6 Paul 261 13 Alex 233 20
7 Robert 258 14 Andy 228 21

Thanks for playing!

Tipster Cup Final

The Final of the Tipster Cup took place between Ozren and André.
Ozren had the chance of completing an unprecedented Tipster League-Cup Double, but made the patriotic mistake of tipping for Croatia. André tipped in favour of France.
As a result, he scored 7 points to Ozren's zero, meaning André is the winner of the Tipster Cup.

Congratulations, André!

Game 64 Report: France - Croatia

France - Croatia
The World Cup Final ended with France beating Croatia 4-2. The Scoring was opened with an own-goal in the 18th minute.

Only one person predicted a high-scoring match: Alex tipped 1158 goals, all for Croatia. Seven people tipped a 2-goal victory for France, gaining 7 points each; six others tipped a win for France for 5 points each. The first goal was scored in the 18th minute. Joris tipped the 18th minute in 53 out of 64 World Cup matches, but for this game he tipped the 20th minute. So too did Christian, meaning each of them gains 3 points for the closest Time.

Game 64 Tips: France - Croatia

France - Croatia      Points
Name Score Scorer Time Points Running Total
Alex 0:1158 Andrej Kramaric 99 0 233
André 2:0 Kylian Mbappé 35 7 244
Andy 1:1 Kylian Mbappé 54 0 228
Axel 3:1 Antoine Griezmann 23 7 212
Ben 2:0 Olivier Giroud 45 7 261
Christian 2:0 Antoine Griezmann 20 10 234
Craig 2:0 Blaise Matuidi 41 7 263
Franz 2:1 Antoine Griezmann 74 5 263
Ines 2:1 Antoine Griezmann 21 5 253
Joe 2:1 Kylian Mbappé 15 5 241
Joris 2:2 Kylian Mbappé 20 3 266
Lee x:x x 999 0 219
Mark x:x x 999 0 222
Ozren 1:2 Luka Modric 30 0 300
Paul 2:0 Antoine Griezmann 38 7 261
Ralph 3:0 Thomas Lemar 15 5 176
Robert 2:0 Antoine Griezmann 55 7 258
Simon
Soeren 1:0 Antoine Griezmann 41 5 221
Tini
Tino 2:1 Kylian Mbappé 23 5 252

Sunday, 22 July 2018

Survey Results

Here are the results of the Tipster survey....

André and Soren correctly tipped France to win the World Cup. Congratulations to both of them. Nobody actually wanted France to win: Iceland and Senegal earned more love than the French did.

Tino, Soren and André tipped England for surprise success. Qualifying from the group stages and winning a penalty shoot-out definitely counts as surprise success for England, so well done to those three. Christian also tipped Russia for success - whether it was a surprise or not depends on how free and fair you believe football to be. :-) Craig tipped Croatia, and they were quite successful, too. Denmark, South Korea, Uruguay and Colombia all made it to the knock-out stages, so the only person whose tip was completely wrong was Ben.

Three people wanted to see Spain fail; two people wanted to see Germany fail; and one person wanted to see Argentina fail. So at least 6 people should have been pleased. Craig, Paul and Ben, along with another 6.8 billion people worlwide, were all disappointed by the French success.

Nobody tipped Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot. Tino gains bonus points for his tip. :-)

As for tipping who would win the Tipster.... nobody tipped Ozren, but there was quite a lot of self-confidence...

Which team do you think will win the World Cup?

Name Answer   Name Answer   Name Answer
AndréFrance AxelGermany PaulGermany 
RobertBrazil JorisBrazil TinoBelgium 
MarkSpain ChristianGermany SorenFrance 
CraigArgentina FranzFrance BenSpain 

Which team would you like to win the World Cup?

Name Answer   Name Answer   Name Answer
AndréIceland AxelGermany PaulEngland 
RobertGermany JorisBelgium TinoSenegal 
MarkIceland ChristianBelgium SorenDenmark 
CraigEngland FranzArgentina BenIceland 

Which team is your tip for surprise success at the World Cup?

Name Answer   Name Answer   Name Answer
AndréEngland AxelDenmark PaulColombia 
RobertSouth Korea JorisBelgium TinoEngland 
MarkDenmark ChristianRussia SorenEngland 
CraigCroatia FranzUruguay BenSerbia 

Which team would you like to see fail?

Name Answer   Name Answer   Name Answer
AndréSpain AxelPortugal PaulFrance 
RobertSpain JorisArgentina TinoPortugal 
MarkGermany ChristianEngland SorenGermany 
CraigFrance FranzSpain BenFrance 

Which player do you think will score the most goals?

Name Answer   Name Answer   Name Answer
AndréRonaldo AxelMueller PaulNeymar 
RobertNeymar JorisNeymar TinoStefan Kuntz 
MarkGriezmann ChristianTimo Werner SorenGriezmann 
CraigLukaku FranzChristiano Ronaldo BenRonaldo 

Who do you think will win the Tipster?

Name Answer   Name Answer   Name Answer
AndréSimon AxelAxel PaulPaul 
RobertRobert JorisRalph TinoAlex 
MarkTini ChristianRobert SorenSoeren 
CraigCraig FranzBen BenRobert 

Statipstics - part ii

Here's the second (and final) part of the Statipstics...

Correct Scores:
Alex and Joe both tipped the Correct Score 8 times in this Tipster (winner Ozren only managed this 7 times). André tipped the Correct Score in just 3 matches.

Correct Margin:
Ozren gained 7 points from 13 matches, while Franz and Tino tipped the correct Margin in 11 games.

Correct Winner:
André tipped the correct Winner with the wrong score (for 5 points) in 22 of 63 matches.

Being Right:
Ozren tipped the right Winner in 37 of the 63 matches, Joris in 36, André in 35, while Ben, Craig and Robert were right in 34 matches. Ozren gained 300 points, while Robert collected only 251 points, showing the advantage of tipping the Correct Score rather than just the correct outcome. Ralph tipped the winner in just 22 games.

Scorer:
The first Scorer was predicted in 12 matches by Christian, Joris and Lee, giving them an accuracy of almost 20%, which is quite impressive. Ralph's accuracy, even allowing for the fewer games he tipped, was just 6%, guessing the first Scorer just 3 times.

Time:
Luck plays a role in the Tipster, and guessing the Time of the first goal is mostly down to luck. Ozren guessed the closest Time in 9 matches, giving him 9% of his points total. Alex guessed the closest Time in 7 matches. Least lucky were Soeren, who only guessed the closest Time once, in the Panama - Tunisia match; and Joris, who actually tried to use data to improve his chances, but only managed to tip the closest Time in the Japan - Senegal game.
There were 11 matches in which somebody tipped the exact Tme of the first goal, with Christian and Joe both achieving this twice.
On average, André's tip was closer to the actual Time than anybody else, less than 20 minutes away from the actual Time. Despite this, he only gained 3 points from two matches. Next best was Ozren, averaging just over 22 minutes. At the other end of the spectrum, Andy was almost 29 minutes away on average.

Tipping:
Five people tipped 100% of the matches: well done to Ben, Christian, Ines, Paul and Robert.
Ralph managed to tip just 50 of the 63 matches.
There were 27 games where everybody tipped. The least-tipped game was Belgium - Panama, where 6 people missed their tips. In total, I received 1067 tips, with 193 (15%) missing.

Points per Tip:
Ozren leads the Tipster, despite missing 4 games (including a couple of games where most people tipped the winner). His average number of points per game where he actually tipped is 5.08. Franz follows with an average of 4.53, with Craig and Mark both averaging 4.27 and Joris 4.24. Ralph averaged 3.42 points per game where he tipped.

With those averages, if Ozren had tipped every game, then in theory he could have accumulated 320 points. Franz would have been 2nd on 285, with Mark and Craig tied in 3rd place on 269, and Joris on 267. Instead, Joris is in 2nd place, and Mark languishes in 15th.
Moral of the story: it's a good idea to submit your tips. Unless your average is a bad as Ralph's. Although if he'd tipped every game, he could be on 215 instead of 171 points.

Comparisons:
Finally, Ozren has achieved the highest ever Tipster score with his 300 points. The winner of Euro 2016, Ines, won with 245 points, but there were just 51 matches at Euro 2016. Ines averaged 4.80 points per game in Euro 2016, while Ozren's average at the 2018 World Cup is 5.08 points. On the other hand, Ines won the 2016 Tipster with 49 points more than Andy in 2nd place, while Ozren won the 2018 Tipster with 34 points more than Joris in 2nd place.
However, comparisons across different tournaments have limited value: Klose won the Golden Boot in the 2006 World Cup with just 5 goals, Ronaldo (the Brazilian one) won with 8 goals in 2002.
And nobody cares. :-)

Sunday, 15 July 2018

Day 24 Scoreboard

At the end of the penultimate match, Ozren sits on top with 300 points. As Joris helpfully pointed out, this is the first time Ozren has achieved that. In fact, it's the first time anybody has reached 300 points in the history of the Tipster, although not all Tipsters are equal: there were just 51 games at Euro 2016.
Joris holds on to second place with 263, while Franz follows on 258, closely followed by Craig who, despite not understanding the rules, has 256 pont. Ben and Paul are tied on 254.
Rank Name Points   Rank Name Points   Rank Name Points
1 Ozren 300 8 Ines 248 15 Mark 222
2 Joris 263 9 Tino 247 16 Lee 219
3 Franz 258 10 André 237 17 Soeren 216
4 Craig 256 11 Joe 236 18 Axel 205
5 Ben 254 12 Alex 233 19 Ralph 171
6 Paul 254 13 Andy 228 20
7 Robert 251 14 Christian 224 21

Game 63 Report: Belgium - England

Belgium - England
Belgium won this match 2-0, with Meunier scoring the opening goal in the 4th minute.
Ten people tipped Belgium to win this match. Well done to Paul, Soeren and Ben, who each tipped the correct Score for 10 points each. André gained 7 points for the correct Margin, and the remaining six people collected 5 points each. Meunier was nobody's tip to score the first goal. The closest Time was tipped by Ralph, just 3 minutes out.

Game 63 Tips: Belgium - England

Belgium - England      Points
Name Score Scorer Time Points Running Total
Alex 0:0 Jeff Hirst 10 0 233
André 3:1 Romelu Lukaku 25 7 237
Andy 1:3 Harry Kane 17 0 228
Axel 3:2 Harry Kane 23 5 205
Ben 2:0 Romelu Lukaku 45 10 254
Christian 1:2 Jamie Vardy 16 0 224
Craig x:x x 999 0 256
Franz 3:2 Romelu Lukaku 42 5 258
Ines 1:1 Eden Hazard 41 0 248
Joe 3:2 Romelu Lukaku 11 5 236
Joris 2:1 Romelu Lukaku 18 5 263
Lee x:x x 999 0 219
Mark x:x x 999 0 222
Ozren x:x x 999 0 300
Paul 2:0 Eden Hazard 40 10 254
Ralph 1:2 Kevin De Bruyne 1 3 171
Robert 2:1 Eden Hazard 30 5 251
Simon
Soeren 2:0 Eden Hazard 23 10 216
Tini
Tino 2:1 Eden Hazard 34 5 247